The Friday Senate Line: Schumer Sets Expectations?
Few politicians have the political chops of Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).
Elected to the House in 1980, Schumer bided his time for the better part of two decades before coming from behind to claim victory in a hotly contested Democratic Senate primary in 1998. He went on to defeat Sen. Alfonse D'Amato (R) in the general election. Six years later, Schumer took control of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and spearheaded the six-seat pickup that returned his party to the majority in 2006.
When Schumer speaks, we listen.
To wit:
This short clip, which was sent to donors as a thank you for their contributions in the first three months of 2008, is chock full of interesting nuggets when it comes to expectation-setting for the fall election -- not to mention amusing footage of Schumer striding around outside the DSCC building.
Schumer describes this election cycle as a "once in a generation opportunity" to significantly expand on the 51-seat majority Democrats hold in the Senate, noting that in places like Kentucky, Mississippi and North Carolina the party has real chances for pickups if the candidates can raise enough money to be competitive.
He adds that the small majority Democrats currently enjoy makes it difficult to push their agenda forward and that the only way to ensure a smoother path for the next Democratic president is to grow the Democratic caucus.
"Both Barack and Hillary have told me if we only have 52 or 53 or even 54 in the Senate they're going to have to trim their agenda, let alone get something done to change America," Schumer says.
One other point from the video, noted by the ever-vigilant Paul Kane of the Washington Post. If you watch closely at the end of the clip, the last number that flashes on the screen is "57". Is that the new high-water mark for Senate Democrats this fall? ...To be continued.
For now, you'll have to content yourself with the latest Senate Line. As always, the number one ranked race is the most likely to change party control in the fall.
The Line is meant as a conversation starter so use the comments section to offer your own thoughts on the races we've included or those we've left off.
To the Line!
10. Kentucky: Here's what we know about this race: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) always run strategically sound and very well-financed campaigns; Bruce Lunsford is off to a solid start in his bid for the Democratic nod and his new television campaign, slated to start today, should cement him as the frontrunner in the May 20 primary. Here's what we don't know: How bad will the political environment be for national Republicans in November and how will that impact McConnell, the leader of his party in Washington? Is Lunsford truly a changed candidate from the guy who spent millions only to come up short in not one, but two gubernatorial primaries over the last five years? (Previous ranking: 10)
9. Maine: A new Republican poll seems to confirm what GOP strategists have long maintained about the race between Sen. Susan Collins (R) and Rep. Tom Allen: despite the Democratic-tilt of the state the incumbent starts out with a clear edge. Collins' current lead is certain to shrink as Allen spends some of the millions he has raised to boost his name identification statewide. But, will voters throw out an incumbent that they, by all measures, like? For that to happen, the political climate nationally and in the state will have to be a mirror image of 2006. That's a possibility but not a probability at the moment. (Previous ranking: 8)
8. Oregon: While we've been a regular critic of the metabolism of state House Speaker Jeff Merkley's campaign, we also are willing to give credit where credit is due. His decision to stop ignoring activist Steve Novick and start playing offense in advance of the state's May 20 Democratic primary seems like the right move. The primary challenge from Novick may wind up being a good thing for Merkley as it has forced him to up his game in advance of the general election race against Sen. Gordon Smith (R). Is Merkley ever going to be a "rock star" candidate? No. But, given the clear Democratic lean of Oregon and Smith's long voting record, he may not have to be. (Previous ranking: 9)
7. Louisiana: For all the talk among Republicans about how vulnerable Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) is to the challenge from state Treasurer John Kennedy (R), we've yet to see evidence that Kennedy is making any real progress. Landrieu raised better than $1 million between Jan. 1 and March 31 and ended March with a whopping $4.5 million in the bank. She has also aggressively, and somewhat successfully, courted Republican leaders and elected officials -- knowing that she'll need significant crossover support to win in the Bayou State. The demographics of Louisiana seem certain to make this a competitive race. But Landrieu is doing everything right at the moment. (Previous ranking: 5)
6. Minnesota: The Fix isn't big on "we told you so's" but, when it comes to the surprising strength of comedian Al Franken's (D) Senate candidacy, well, we told you so. Franken simply outworked and out-organized 2000 Senate candidate Mike Ciresi who opted out of the race last month after it became abundantly clear Franken would win the Democratic nod at the state party's endorsement convention. Ciresi's surprise departure kicks off the general election race between Franken and Sen. Norm Coleman (R) a few months before the incumbent would have liked. Still, Coleman is a very sound candidate and a recent Republican poll that showed him leading Franken by 6 points seems about right. (Previous ranking: 6)
5. Alaska: How can a state that gave President Bush 61 percent of the vote in 2004 and an incumbent who has held his seat since 1968 possibly be ranked this high on the Line? Because, despite Alaska's Republican nature and Sen. Ted Stevens' (R) seniority, the winds of change are blowing across the Last Frontier. The defeat of former governor Frank Murkowski (R) in 2006 by reform-minded Sarah Palin (R) was one early sign and the decision by Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell (R) to offer a primary challenge embattled Rep. Don Young (R) this cycle is further evidence. Stevens finds himself under federal investigation over a substantial remodeling of his Alaska home that was overseen by an oil services company executive who has already pleaded guilty to bribing elected officials. A recent Hays Research poll showed that the scandal has impacted Stevens' once lofty favorable numbers; 49 percent of voters said they had a favorable opinion of the Senator as compared to 46 percent who viewed him unfavorably. And, did we mention Democrats have their strongest possible candidate -- Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich -- running against Stevens? A real problem for Republicans as long as Stevens is seeking re-election. (Previous ranking: 7)
4. Colorado: With neither Rep. Mark Udall (D) nor former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R) facing a serious primary challenge, the general election for this open seat has been going on for months and is already starting to get nasty. For the next seven months get used to this race being painted as "Boulder Liberal" Mark Udall versus "Big Oil Bob" Schaffer. Good times. A recent Republican poll showed Udall with a twelve-point lead, although even Democrats acknowledge that may be a bit high. (Previous ranking: 4)
3. New Hampshire: Is Sen. John Sununu (R) this cycle's Rick Santorum? Santorum began his 2006 re-election bid trailing then state Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. (D) by double digits in polling and never made up any real ground as the campaign proceeded. All the credible polling we have seen in New Hampshire shows Sununu badly trailing former governor Jeanne Shaheen (D). Sununu is less branded as a conservative than Santorum was heading into the 2006 race but the New Hampshire Senator is also nowhere close to the fundraiser that Santorum is/was. The trend lines aren't good for Republicans here. (Previous ranking: 4)
2. New Mexico: As the June 3 Republican primary nears, the race between Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce gets increasingly hostile. The latest point of contention? Whether or not Pearce and Wilson backed the closure of a New Mexico Air Force base. Pearce won a victory at the pre-primary convention last month, taking 55 percent of the votes from attendees and ensuring the top spot on the ballot in June. As the Republican race heats up, Rep. Tom Udall (D) continues to chill -- sitting on an huge warchest and double-digit leads over either Wilson or Pearce. (Previous ranking: 2)
1. Virginia: Every one assumes that former governor Mark Warner's (D) decision to run for the Senate in 2008 means he isn't in the vice presidential sweepstakes. Don't be so sure. Former Lt. Gov. Don Beyer, a key Warner supporter, would love to be in the Senate and would almost certainly be willing to step in if Warner was named as the veep choice of either Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) or Barack Obama (Ill.). (Previous ranking: 1)
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